As the World Test Championship (WTC) cycle for 2023–25 heats up, India finds itself in a tight corner after a disappointing home series, making the upcoming series in Australia a crucial challenge. With only a limited number of matches left to secure a spot in the WTC final, India’s performance against Australia has become essential to staying competitive in the standings.
The WTC points table has seen major changes as a result of events in the subcontinent over the last three weeks. After their respective whitewashes in Bangladesh and India, South Africa and New Zealand have pushed hard for a place in the final.
Australia have now overtaken India, who were sitting comfortably ahead of the others, by a considerable margin after their 2-0 win against Bangladesh. With seven series remaining in this cycle, five teams still control their own destiny, making this the most fiercely contested WTC cycle of the three.
India’s Recent Setbacks
India, traditionally formidable on home soil, encountered a surprising setback with recent results that left their WTC campaign hanging in the balance. A loss in the home series against England raised questions about their bowling consistency and middle-order strength, while injuries to key players have amplified these concerns.
While India initially started the WTC cycle strong, their recent performances at home have exposed gaps in the squad’s adaptability and depth, particularly when facing well-prepared opponents.
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This home series setback has not only dented their confidence but also put them on the back foot in the WTC points table. Currently, India hovers in a precarious position, where even a minor slip could cost them a place in the final, making the upcoming series in Australia critical to their aspirations.
WTC 2023-25 Standings after the Mumbai Test
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Points | Points Percentage System (PCT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.5 |
| India | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 98 | 58.3 |
| New Zealand | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 72 | 54.6 |
| England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 93 | 40.8 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.6 |
| Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 33.3 |
| South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 54.2 |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 18.5 |
| Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 27.5 |
Australia
Series Left: 5 Tests vs. India,
2 Tests vs. Sri Lanka
Thanks to India’s three consecutive losses, Australia, who have been in a slump since their last Test match in mid-March, have moved to the top of the standings. If they win at least five of the final seven matches, they will have a strong chance of defending their title at Lord’s next year.
They have planned a series against the two teams that are directly below them in the standings, and a win over them will help them gain a lead and reduce the number of points earned by their direct rivals.
New Zealand (64.3% after beating England 3–0) and Sri Lanka (69.2% after beating South Africa 2–0) can both surpass the defending champions’ 62.3%, so Australia’s 4–0 win over India and 0–2 loss to Sri Lanka could be in vain.
India
Series Left: 5 Tests vs Australia
After the historic 0-3 defeat at the hands of New Zealand, India have lost a lot. To avoid being dependent on other results, they must beat Australia by a score of 5-0 or 4-0 and take their PCT past 65%, which only South Africa or Sri Lanka can achieve.
They can still lose to South Africa (69.4%), Sri Lanka (69.2%), and New Zealand (64.3%) if those countries win all their remaining Test matches, even if they win 4-1 and reach 64.1%. If Pat Cummins’ team loses 0-2 in Sri Lanka and loses to at least one of South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand, Australia will still beat India even if they lose 2-3.
Sri Lanka
Series Left: 2 Tests vs. South Africa,
2 Tests vs Australia
With three consecutive wins over England and New Zealand, Sri Lanka have taken the lead in the rankings with four games remaining. They will reach 69.2% PCT with wins in all four, which can only be surpassed if India win the five Test matches of the Border Gavaskar Trophy. If they win three of their final four games, they have a good chance of finishing with 61%, but they will need other teams in the race to lose points.
New Zealand
Series Left: 3 Tests vs. England
After losing 2-0 in Sri Lanka, the inaugural WTC champions, New Zealand, had no chance of making it to the final, but their incredible 3-0 win in India has given them fresh hope. Because Australia, India, South Africa, or Sri Lanka can achieve their maximum PCT of 64.3%, so even if they beat England 3-0, they can still lose.
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Only one of India or Australia can beat New Zealand’s maximum PCT of 64.3%, which is enough for New Zealand to secure a trip to Lord’s if the series between Sri Lanka and South Africa is tied 1-1.
South Africa
Series Left: 2 Tests vs. Sri Lanka,
2 Tests vs Pakistan
After a crushing 2-0 win in Bangladesh, South Africa have re-energized after spending the first half of the cycle in the bottom half of the league. They still have to play four home Test matches. If they win all four matches, they will reach the final with 69.4%, with only Australia able to overtake them on points. If they win three of their next four matches, they will have a better chance of finishing with 61%, but they will need the other teams in the race to lose.
The Stakes and Expectations
This series is not just a test of skills but also a mental battle. After the recent home series disappointment, India must rally as a team and focus on each game’s potential impact on their WTC standing. A series win in Australia would not only revive their WTC hopes but also boost morale, setting a strong foundation for the remainder of the championship cycle.